US recession over; unemployment lingers
- Source: Global Times
- [01:33 October 14 2009]
- Comments
The recession gripping the United States for nearly two years is over, but economic growth may be held in check by high unemployment, a poll of business economists showed Monday.
"The Great Recession is over," according to the consensus macroeconomic outlook of a panel of 44 professional forecasters of the National Association of Business Economics (NABE).
"The survey found that the vast majority of business economists believe that the recession has ended but that the economic recovery is likely to be more moderate than those typically experienced following steep declines," NABE president-elect Lynn Reaser said.
More than 80 percent of economists surveyed believed that an expansion has begun, according to the poll conducted during the September 2-24 period.
The study also found that the more-than-three-year downturn in the US housing market, the epicenter of the financial turmoil that slammed the brakes on growth, was very close to ending, with an upturn expected next year, said Reaser, chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University.
According to the survey, the key areas of concern were the increasing federal debt and unemployment rates, "expected to remain very high through next year."
The unemployment rate was forecast to rise to 10 percent in the first quarter of next year and edge down to 9.5 percent by the end of 2010, while inflation is expected to remain contained throughout next year.
"The good news is that this deep and long recession appears to be over, and with improving credit markets, the US economy can return to solid growth next year without worry about rising inflation," the NABE said.
The stock market rebound was a point of "strong agreement" among panelists, with all the forecasters predicting a gain in 2010 on the back of an increase of 11 percent in corporate profits next year.
Reuters
