EU recession over, but sharp contrasts seen in Eastern countries
- Source: Global Times
- [01:02 November 23 2009]
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The European Union may have inched out of its sharpest recession since the global slump of the 1930s, but green shoots are not emerging uniformly across the 27-nation bloc's eastern member states.
Contrasts are sharp among the 10 ex-communist countries that have joined the EU since 2004.
The situation in Poland, the only EU nation to have enjoyed sustained growth this year, compares with the stark lot of countries such as Latvia or Hungary, where the economies have been in freefall.
"In terms of growth, Eastern Europe will trail behind the rest of the world," said Erik Bergloef, chief economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
Combined third-quarter figures last week showed that the EU – the world's biggest trading bloc – had joined Japan and the United States in returning to growth, albeit modestly.
"Central and Eastern Europe countries remain highly dependent on Western Europe, which is much more powerful, economically. As a result, their future hinges on recovery in Western Europe," said Polish analyst Witold Orlowski, of PricewaterhouseCoopers.
"Countries like Bulgaria or the Baltic states, which are heavily dependent on foreign capital, are suffering the most. They are dicing with disaster and are still worried about the stability of their currencies," he added.
"Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia ... can look to the future more serenely," Orlowski said.
"The situation in the Baltic states is the least optimistic, because they have been subjected to the severest recession in the EU," said Violeta Klyviene, an analyst at Danske Bank in Lithuania.
AFP
